Imagine if you will a country that is absorbing terrorist
attacks from several organizations, both from within and from outside the
country. Imagine that same country is a
temporary home to over 3 million refugees that have escaped a crippling civil
war in a neighboring country. Imagine
that same country is enduring a political struggle that could potentially tear
the country apart. And finally, imagine
that country has military elements that tried to overthrow a
democratically-elected government. There
is such a country that fits all of those descriptions – that country is Turkey.
It has been a little more than a year since dissident elements
of the Turkish military attempted a coup to overthrow the regime of President Recep
Tayyip Erdoğan on July 15, 2016. Much
has happened in that country since the attempted coup failed. The country has endured numerous terror
attacks from several different groups.
The government has purged [and continues to purge] many sectors of
Turkish government and Turkish life from what they call “The Deep State,”
members of which the Turkish government claims to be behind the abortive coup,
namely the Gülen movement. Most
significantly, the country held a constitutional referendum to decide what kind
of government the country will have.
When he was Barack Obama’s first Chief of Staff, Rahm
Emmanuel was often attributed as the one who uttered the phrase “don’t let a
good crisis go to waste.” An attempt to
remove a duly elected President from office by force is about as big a crisis
one can think of in a democracy. As the
coup attempt was in its early stages, I asked the following question on
Facebook:
“Wondering if this
coup in Turkey will turn out like the coup against Gorbachev in August 1991...”
As fate would have it, the July 2016 coup attempt in
Turkey proved to be just as inept as that tried in the Soviet Union in August
1991. The plotters failed
miserably. Erdoğan is still in
power. In commemorating the coup
attempt’s failure, Erdoğan vowed that “we will chop off the heads of those
traitors” if the Turkish parliament passed a bill to restore capital punishment
to Turkey.
Suffice to say, Erdoğan is not letting this crisis go to
waste. The night the coup collapsed,
Erdoğan referred to the attempted coup as a “gift from God.” The “gift” was to Erdoğan, who has used the
coup as a pretext to cement his grip on power.
He has repeatedly demonstrated a thin skin in the face of criticism and
satire, and has shown no reluctance to user the levers of state power to settle
scores.
State of Emergency
Article 120 of the Turkish constitution allows the
President, with the consent of parliament, to declare a state of
emergency. The first declaration of this
state of emergency was for three months, and has been extended three times
since its imposition on July 20, 2017.
The state of emergency allows resident to rule by decrees that have the
force of law. At first the state of
emergency was going to last only three months.
But not, Erdoğan says it could last indefinitely. He hasn’t locked up all of his actual and
perceived enemies yet, so that could take a while.
Terrorist Attacks
New York Times writer Patrick Kingsley described Turkey
as “a nation under pressure”. Turkey is
fighting two different terrorist campaigns – one led by the Kurds, the other by
ISIS. There were several acts of
terrorism committed both before and after the July 15th coup attempt. Some of these included the following:
• Atatürk
Airport attack – June 28 – 45 killed, >230 injured [Nobody claimed credit,
Turkey suspects ISIS]
• Ankara
car bombing – February 17 – 29 killed [14 Turkish soldiers], 60 injured -
Kurdistan Freedom Hawks [TAK] claimed responsibility
• Ankara
car bombing – March 13 – 37 killed, 127 injured - Kurdistan Freedom Hawks [TAK]
claimed responsibility
• Kurdish
wedding, Gaziantep, Turkey. – August 20 – 57 killed, 66 injured [Both ISIS and
Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) blamed, nobody claimed credit]
• Diyarbakır
bombings in February [6 killed, 1 injured], March [7 killed, 27 injured], May
[3 killed, 45 injured] , and November 2016 [11 killed, 45 injured] – ISIS
claimed responsibility
• Kayseri
car bombing – December 17 – 14 Turkish soldiers killed, 55 injured - Kurdistan
Freedom Hawks [TAK] claimed responsibility
• Istanbul
car bombings – December 10 – 48 killed [36 were police officers], 166 injured -
Kurdistan Freedom Hawks [TAK] claimed responsibility
• Şemdinli
car bombing – October 9 – 15 killed [10 Turkish soldiers], 27 injured - PKK's armed wing HPG claimed responsibility
One can imagine the anxiety level of our own population
and leadership if attacks like these happened here. But in Turkey, the charge of “supporting
terrorism” is very broad-based and is used by Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and
Development Party's (AKP) to silence its critics. Those critics include journalists, many of
whom have been imprisoned by the AKP government. This issue of press freedom is but one
sticking point between the EU and Turkey, which has been trying to gain EU
membership since 1987.
The Migrant Crisis
Migrants/refugees started to surge into Europe as a
result of the Arab Spring in 2011. Since
the Syrian Civil War began later that same year, more than 5 million Syrians
have fled their country seeking shelter.
As a front-line state in that conflict, Turkey alone is sheltering over 3
million of them, and they are overwhelmed.
According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, there are
approximately 950,000 total pending asylum application for asylum pending in
Europe. Germany and Sweden have open
immigration policies and the most generous asylum policies in the European
Union. Those two countries account for
approximately 64 percent of those asylum applications. However, Eastern European states like Poland,
Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia have all expressed their desire to
take in only non-Muslim refugees. France
and Denmark are hesitant to take in migrants from the Middle East and North
Africa, citing security concerns in the wake of Muslim terrorist attacks in
Paris and Copenhagen.
The EU as a whole isn’t exactly welcoming Syrian refugees
with open arms. President Erdoğan
complained the EU wasn’t doing enough to help Turkey deal with the
problem. The EU and Turkey struck a deal
over the migrant issue. In return for €6
billion from the EU, Turkey will block the flow of asylum seekers to Europe. Turkey also desires visa-free access to the
EU for Turks. The promise of visa-free
European travel for Turks is a key incentive in the migrant deal, but Turkey
says the EU must change its conditions for the visa concession. Erdoğan accused the EU "hypocrisy"
for telling Ankara to adapt its counter-terror laws in return for visa-free
travel while it was fighting the PKK. Erdoğan
never misses an opportunity to remind that any slight to Turkey or himself
personally [whether actual or perceived] could put the migrant deal with the EU
in jeopardy.
The Purge
In the immediate aftermath of the failed coup, 20,000
teachers and administrators were suspended from their jobs. More than 2,700 judges and prosecutors were
removed from their jobs, as were 6,000 soldiers. All were considered by the government to be
allied with Fethullah Gülen. This tells
me this was like the Nazi Party’s Night of the Long Knives in 1934 [only nobody
was killed here] – the AKP had their
lists ready, and needed an excuse to act to remove perceived political
opponents from their places of employment.
Patrick Kingsley described the ongoing purge this way:
“Many in Turkey feel little pity for the Gülenists. For
years, the group’s members kept a firm grip on the country’s justice system and
education sector. And when they were still allied with the government, their
cadres in the judiciary were accused of persecuting secular soldiers and
politicians in a purge that draws comparisons to Mr. Erdoğan’s crackdown today.
The government describes the Gülen movement as a carefully structured
conspiracy with a secret leadership that aims to infiltrate and take over the
Turkish bureaucracy, and even those of the dozens of foreign nations, like the
United States, where it owns schools.”
A group of journalists who say they are “a small group of
young journalists who are trying to be the voice for Turkish people who suffer
under an oppressive regime” maintain a website called Turkeypurge.com. This website tracks the purge of officials
within the Turkish state bureaucracy, military, and civilians alleged to have
links to Fethullah Gülen, the Turkish cleric who used to be allied with Erdoğan. Gülen is now accused of being the mastermind
behind the failed coup. They keep track
of “daily account of academics, military officers, police officers, teachers,
government officials and bureaucrats who have been dismissed from their jobs as
part of the ongoing purge.”
As of July 19, 2017, their totals include:
State officials, teachers, bureaucrats, and academics who
were dismissed by gov’t decrees, teachers whose licenses were revoked by
Turkey’s Education Ministry, academics who lost their jobs by gov’t decrees,
and dismissed military personnel:
145,711
Detained: 120,117
Arrested: 56,114
Judges & prosecutors dismissed: 4,424
Media outlets shut down: 149
Journalists arrested:
269
Universities closed:
15
7,316 academics working at 108 universities across Turkey
Eleven pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party HDP
lawmakers have detained on charges of having ties to the outlawed militant
group the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
The party claims that since parliamentary immunity was lifted earlier
this year, the central government has systematically tried to destroy it
through arrests and erroneous claims that it supports the PKK. The government has also arrested hundreds of
HDP party workers across the country.
This is part of a campaign that has seen pro-Kurdish members of
parliament, writers, and elected city mayors imprisoned on charges of
sympathizing with the banned Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The PKK has actively promoted an autonomous
Kurdish region and led an armed insurrection against the Turkish government since
1984. Both the United States and the EU
list the PKK as a terrorist organization.
The HDP denies involvement with the PKK, but has expressed support for
government-PKK peace talks.
But in Turkey, the charge of “supporting terrorism” is
very broad-based and is used by Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development
Party's (AKP) to silence its critics.
The Referendum
In January 2017, the Turkish parliament passed a package
of constitutional amendments to greatly expand the powers of the presidency. The amendments greatly expand the powers of
the presidency. Until now, the post of
president was ceremonial, with executive authority resting with a prime
minister. The presidency was also a
non-partisan post. The amendments allow
the president to be a member of a political party. The president will have authority over all
executive branch institutions, including the military. It would give the president the power to
appoint key senior-level judges and other judicial officials without parliamentary—or
any other—review. He would also be able to issue decrees with the force of law
in many areas of Turkish life, particularly regarding economic and social
concerns—unless Parliament acted to override the decrees. It would abolish the
post of prime minister, with the president assuming the powers of that office.
And it would allow, under certain circumstances, the president to serve three
terms totaling just short of 15 years.
One of the amendments involves creating an additional 50 seats in the
Turkish parliament [from 550 to 600], which could enable Erdoğan to carve out a
geographical advantage for the AKP to obtain a critical two-thirds majority in
future elections. The potential is there
for Turkey to turn into a one-party state.
The EU isn’t pleased.
On April 16, the amendments narrowly passed. Fifty-one percent of Turkish citizens voted
“yes”. Just as the votes were being
counted, the High Electoral Board (YSK) stated that ballots without the
official stamps would be counted. This, of course, quickly raised a red
flag. The result – Turkish society is
highly polarized [sound familiar?], the EU wants to suspend ascension talks
with Turkey, and the vote result is being appealed to European Court of Human
Rights. If the opposition wins the
appeal, I’m certain Erdoğan will ignore it.
German-Turkish
Relations
It seems lately that every passing day brings another
incident that contributes to the heightened tensions between Germany and
Turkey. There is a large Turkish
community in Germany, approximately 3 million strong. More Turks live in Germany than anywhere else
outside Turkey. Germany started to invite Turkish citizens to work in the
country in the 1960s as it was facing a severe labor shortage, and many Turks
subsequently moved to Germany as temporary "guest workers." Contrary
to initial governmental plans, a significant share of those workers never left
the country. There is a tension between
the Turkish immigrants and their German hosts.
Angel Merkel urges Turkish immigrants to assimilate into German society. Erdoğan encourages Turks in Germany to
integrate, but not assimilate so the Turks don’t lose their Turkish
identity. Germany and Turkey are allies
within NATO, but you wouldn’t know it by reading what’s on the Internet.
One month prior to the coup, the German Bundestag voted
to recognize the massacre of 1.5 Armenians by Ottoman forces as genocide. A similar vote comes up in every new American
Congress, but because we want to maintain good relations with Turkey, such a
resolution fails to pass. But last year,
the Germans actually did it, and the Turks were furious. Although the resolution used the word
“genocide” in the headline and text and says Germany - at the time an ally of
the Ottomans - is partly guilty for doing nothing to stop the killings. Nevertheless, the Turks were furious. German-Turkish relations have been going
downhill and picking up speed ever since.
During the campaign for the April 2017 constitutional
referendum, approximately 1.3 million Turks living in Germany were eligible to
vote. Erdoğan wanted to address them –
Germany refused. As a result, Erdoğan
said the Germans were using “Nazi practices” to keep him from addressing the
Turkish diaspora. In another
development, the head of German foreign intelligence said in an interview that
Turkey failed to convince them that Gülen was behind the abortive coup. Der
Speigel quoted Bruno Kahl as saying “Turkey has tried to convince us of
that at every level but so far it has not succeeded.”
Germany decided to withdraw its troops who support the
fight against the Islamic State group in Syria from Incirlik base and move them
to Jordan after German lawmakers were refused the right to visit the base. Turkey blocked German MPs from visiting the
troops in apparent retaliation after Germany gave asylum to Turkish officers
who fled in the wake of last year’s failed coup attempt. The Turks also claimed some German MPs have
been in contact with the PKK and couldn’t allow them to visit Incirlik for
“security reasons”.
German-Turkish reporter Deniz Yucel has been imprisoned
in Turkey since mid-February 2017.
Erdoğan described him as a German spy and agent of the
banned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Erdoğan said he had ties to the outlawed
Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK), claiming picture evidence proved the journalist
was a "proper agent" and "terrorist." German journalist Mesale Tolu was arrested
in the early hours of May 1. Tolu was
reportedly placed under remand facing allegations of spreading "propaganda
for a terrorist organization" as well as "membership in a terrorist
group."
Earlier this month, Turkish police detained ten people
[four of have since been released], including German human rights consultant
Peter Steudtner and Amnesty International's director for Turkey, Idil Eser. They’re
in custody awaiting trial for allegedly aiding an unnamed terror group.
Pre-trial detention in Turkey can last for up to five years. They had been conducting a digital security
and information management workshop that had been in progress for two days when
they were arrested. Steudtner's
co-organizer, the Swede Ali Gharavi and seven Turkish activists were also
detained.
Germany has since demanded Steudtner’s release, but
Turkey has responded to the German demands as interference with the Turkish
judiciary. They also accused the Germans
of harboring fugitives from Turkish justice.
Turkish officers and diplomats that Turkey says were involved with the
July 2016 coup have sought political asylum in Germany. The German foreign minister complained that
German companies are being accused of aiding and abetting terrorism without any
evidence, and that this current diplomatic climate casts doubt on future German
exports to Turkey. Germany is also
revising their “travel advice” for German tourists traveling to Turkey. The German foreign minister stated that what
happened to Steudtner could happen to anybody.
Steudtner’s arrest might be a bridge too far for Germany. Given Turkey’s president of perpetual
outrage, this may not end well.
“March for
Justice”
A Turkish court found Enis Berberoglu, a member of
parliament for Turkey's main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP – the
party of the republic’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk), guilty of leaking a
video that purportedly showed Turkey smuggling weapons to Syrian rebels.
Berberoglu was given a 25-year prison sentence.
CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu described the decision as lawless and
politically motivated. As a protest, Kilicdaroglu
walked from Ankara to Istanbul, where Berberoglu is imprisoned, while holding a
sign reading "Adalet," meaning “justice” in Turkish. He gathered thousands of fellow marchers
along the 250 miles between Ankara and Istanbul. It was a non-political protest – the only
sign that was displayed was the Adalet sign.
Keep in mind that in the immediate aftermath of the coup attempt, Kilicdaroglu
and his CHP supported Erdoğan’s government.
Erdoğan warned that Kilicdaroglu’s march could land him “in
trouble”. But for now, the opposition to
Erdoğan [hitherto fragmented] has unified, and Kilicdaroglu is still a free
man. How long the opposition to Erdoğan
maintains their unity remains to be seen.
