Turkey Since the Coup

Imagine if you will a country that is absorbing terrorist attacks from several organizations, both from within and from outside the country.  Imagine that same country is a temporary home to over 3 million refugees that have escaped a crippling civil war in a neighboring country.  Imagine that same country is enduring a political struggle that could potentially tear the country apart.  And finally, imagine that country has military elements that tried to overthrow a democratically-elected government.    There is such a country that fits all of those descriptions – that country is Turkey.

It has been a little more than a year since dissident elements of the Turkish military attempted a coup to overthrow the regime of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on July 15, 2016.  Much has happened in that country since the attempted coup failed.  The country has endured numerous terror attacks from several different groups.  The government has purged [and continues to purge] many sectors of Turkish government and Turkish life from what they call “The Deep State,” members of which the Turkish government claims to be behind the abortive coup, namely the Gülen movement.  Most significantly, the country held a constitutional referendum to decide what kind of government the country will have.

When he was Barack Obama’s first Chief of Staff, Rahm Emmanuel was often attributed as the one who uttered the phrase “don’t let a good crisis go to waste.”   An attempt to remove a duly elected President from office by force is about as big a crisis one can think of in a democracy.  As the coup attempt was in its early stages, I asked the following question on Facebook:

“Wondering if this coup in Turkey will turn out like the coup against Gorbachev in August 1991...”

As fate would have it, the July 2016 coup attempt in Turkey proved to be just as inept as that tried in the Soviet Union in August 1991.  The plotters failed miserably.  Erdoğan is still in power.  In commemorating the coup attempt’s failure, Erdoğan vowed that “we will chop off the heads of those traitors” if the Turkish parliament passed a bill to restore capital punishment to Turkey. 

Suffice to say, Erdoğan is not letting this crisis go to waste.  The night the coup collapsed, Erdoğan referred to the attempted coup as a “gift from God.”  The “gift” was to Erdoğan, who has used the coup as a pretext to cement his grip on power.  He has repeatedly demonstrated a thin skin in the face of criticism and satire, and has shown no reluctance to user the levers of state power to settle scores.

State of Emergency

Article 120 of the Turkish constitution allows the President, with the consent of parliament, to declare a state of emergency.  The first declaration of this state of emergency was for three months, and has been extended three times since its imposition on July 20, 2017.  The state of emergency allows resident to rule by decrees that have the force of law.  At first the state of emergency was going to last only three months.  But not, Erdoğan says it could last indefinitely.  He hasn’t locked up all of his actual and perceived enemies yet, so that could take a while.

Terrorist Attacks

New York Times writer Patrick Kingsley described Turkey as “a nation under pressure”.  Turkey is fighting two different terrorist campaigns – one led by the Kurds, the other by ISIS.  There were several acts of terrorism committed both before and after the July 15th coup attempt.  Some of these included the following:

•           Atatürk Airport attack – June 28 – 45 killed, >230 injured [Nobody claimed credit, Turkey suspects ISIS]

•           Ankara car bombing – February 17 – 29 killed [14 Turkish soldiers], 60 injured - Kurdistan Freedom Hawks [TAK] claimed responsibility

•           Ankara car bombing – March 13 – 37 killed, 127 injured - Kurdistan Freedom Hawks [TAK] claimed responsibility

•           Kurdish wedding, Gaziantep, Turkey. – August 20 – 57 killed, 66 injured [Both ISIS and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) blamed, nobody claimed credit]

•           Diyarbakır bombings in February [6 killed, 1 injured], March [7 killed, 27 injured], May [3 killed, 45 injured] , and November 2016 [11 killed, 45 injured] – ISIS claimed responsibility

•           Kayseri car bombing – December 17 – 14 Turkish soldiers killed, 55 injured - Kurdistan Freedom Hawks [TAK] claimed responsibility

•           Istanbul car bombings – December 10 – 48 killed [36 were police officers], 166 injured - Kurdistan Freedom Hawks [TAK] claimed responsibility

•           Şemdinli car bombing – October 9 – 15 killed [10 Turkish soldiers], 27 injured -  PKK's armed wing HPG claimed responsibility

One can imagine the anxiety level of our own population and leadership if attacks like these happened here.  But in Turkey, the charge of “supporting terrorism” is very broad-based and is used by Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party's (AKP) to silence its critics.  Those critics include journalists, many of whom have been imprisoned by the AKP government.  This issue of press freedom is but one sticking point between the EU and Turkey, which has been trying to gain EU membership since 1987.

The Migrant Crisis

Migrants/refugees started to surge into Europe as a result of the Arab Spring in 2011.  Since the Syrian Civil War began later that same year, more than 5 million Syrians have fled their country seeking shelter.  As a front-line state in that conflict, Turkey alone is sheltering over 3 million of them, and they are overwhelmed.  According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, there are approximately 950,000 total pending asylum application for asylum pending in Europe.  Germany and Sweden have open immigration policies and the most generous asylum policies in the European Union.  Those two countries account for approximately 64 percent of those asylum applications.  However, Eastern European states like Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia have all expressed their desire to take in only non-Muslim refugees.  France and Denmark are hesitant to take in migrants from the Middle East and North Africa, citing security concerns in the wake of Muslim terrorist attacks in Paris and Copenhagen. 

The EU as a whole isn’t exactly welcoming Syrian refugees with open arms.  President Erdoğan complained the EU wasn’t doing enough to help Turkey deal with the problem.  The EU and Turkey struck a deal over the migrant issue.  In return for €6 billion from the EU, Turkey will block the flow of asylum seekers to Europe.  Turkey also desires visa-free access to the EU for Turks.  The promise of visa-free European travel for Turks is a key incentive in the migrant deal, but Turkey says the EU must change its conditions for the visa concession.   Erdoğan accused the EU "hypocrisy" for telling Ankara to adapt its counter-terror laws in return for visa-free travel while it was fighting the PKK.  Erdoğan never misses an opportunity to remind that any slight to Turkey or himself personally [whether actual or perceived] could put the migrant deal with the EU in jeopardy. 

The Purge

In the immediate aftermath of the failed coup, 20,000 teachers and administrators were suspended from their jobs.  More than 2,700 judges and prosecutors were removed from their jobs, as were 6,000 soldiers.  All were considered by the government to be allied with Fethullah Gülen.  This tells me this was like the Nazi Party’s Night of the Long Knives in 1934 [only nobody was killed here]  – the AKP had their lists ready, and needed an excuse to act to remove perceived political opponents from their places of employment.

Patrick Kingsley described the ongoing purge this way:

“Many in Turkey feel little pity for the Gülenists. For years, the group’s members kept a firm grip on the country’s justice system and education sector. And when they were still allied with the government, their cadres in the judiciary were accused of persecuting secular soldiers and politicians in a purge that draws comparisons to Mr. Erdoğan’s crackdown today. The government describes the Gülen movement as a carefully structured conspiracy with a secret leadership that aims to infiltrate and take over the Turkish bureaucracy, and even those of the dozens of foreign nations, like the United States, where it owns schools.”

A group of journalists who say they are “a small group of young journalists who are trying to be the voice for Turkish people who suffer under an oppressive regime” maintain a website called Turkeypurge.com.  This website tracks the purge of officials within the Turkish state bureaucracy, military, and civilians alleged to have links to Fethullah Gülen, the Turkish cleric who used to be allied with Erdoğan.  Gülen is now accused of being the mastermind behind the failed coup.  They keep track of “daily account of academics, military officers, police officers, teachers, government officials and bureaucrats who have been dismissed from their jobs as part of the ongoing purge.” 

As of July 19, 2017, their totals include:

State officials, teachers, bureaucrats, and academics who were dismissed by gov’t decrees, teachers whose licenses were revoked by Turkey’s Education Ministry, academics who lost their jobs by gov’t decrees, and dismissed military personnel:  145,711

Detained:  120,117

Arrested: 56,114

Judges & prosecutors dismissed:  4,424

Media outlets shut down: 149

Journalists arrested:  269

Universities closed:  15

7,316 academics working at 108 universities across Turkey

Eleven pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party HDP lawmakers have detained on charges of having ties to the outlawed militant group the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).  The party claims that since parliamentary immunity was lifted earlier this year, the central government has systematically tried to destroy it through arrests and erroneous claims that it supports the PKK.  The government has also arrested hundreds of HDP party workers across the country.  This is part of a campaign that has seen pro-Kurdish members of parliament, writers, and elected city mayors imprisoned on charges of sympathizing with the banned Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).  The PKK has actively promoted an autonomous Kurdish region and led an armed insurrection against the Turkish government since 1984.  Both the United States and the EU list the PKK as a terrorist organization.  The HDP denies involvement with the PKK, but has expressed support for government-PKK peace talks.

But in Turkey, the charge of “supporting terrorism” is very broad-based and is used by Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party's (AKP) to silence its critics.

The Referendum

In January 2017, the Turkish parliament passed a package of constitutional amendments to greatly expand the powers of the presidency.  The amendments greatly expand the powers of the presidency.  Until now, the post of president was ceremonial, with executive authority resting with a prime minister.  The presidency was also a non-partisan post.  The amendments allow the president to be a member of a political party.  The president will have authority over all executive branch institutions, including the military.  It would give the president the power to appoint key senior-level judges and other judicial officials without parliamentary—or any other—review. He would also be able to issue decrees with the force of law in many areas of Turkish life, particularly regarding economic and social concerns—unless Parliament acted to override the decrees. It would abolish the post of prime minister, with the president assuming the powers of that office. And it would allow, under certain circumstances, the president to serve three terms totaling just short of 15 years.  One of the amendments involves creating an additional 50 seats in the Turkish parliament [from 550 to 600], which could enable Erdoğan to carve out a geographical advantage for the AKP to obtain a critical two-thirds majority in future elections.  The potential is there for Turkey to turn into a one-party state.  The EU isn’t pleased.

On April 16, the amendments narrowly passed.  Fifty-one percent of Turkish citizens voted “yes”.  Just as the votes were being counted, the High Electoral Board (YSK) stated that ballots without the official stamps would be counted. This, of course, quickly raised a red flag.  The result – Turkish society is highly polarized [sound familiar?], the EU wants to suspend ascension talks with Turkey, and the vote result is being appealed to European Court of Human Rights.  If the opposition wins the appeal, I’m certain Erdoğan will ignore it.

German-Turkish Relations

It seems lately that every passing day brings another incident that contributes to the heightened tensions between Germany and Turkey.   There is a large Turkish community in Germany, approximately 3 million strong.  More Turks live in Germany than anywhere else outside Turkey. Germany started to invite Turkish citizens to work in the country in the 1960s as it was facing a severe labor shortage, and many Turks subsequently moved to Germany as temporary "guest workers." Contrary to initial governmental plans, a significant share of those workers never left the country.  There is a tension between the Turkish immigrants and their German hosts.  Angel Merkel urges Turkish immigrants to assimilate into German society.  Erdoğan encourages Turks in Germany to integrate, but not assimilate so the Turks don’t lose their Turkish identity.  Germany and Turkey are allies within NATO, but you wouldn’t know it by reading what’s on the Internet. 

One month prior to the coup, the German Bundestag voted to recognize the massacre of 1.5 Armenians by Ottoman forces as genocide.  A similar vote comes up in every new American Congress, but because we want to maintain good relations with Turkey, such a resolution fails to pass.  But last year, the Germans actually did it, and the Turks were furious.  Although the resolution used the word “genocide” in the headline and text and says Germany - at the time an ally of the Ottomans - is partly guilty for doing nothing to stop the killings.  Nevertheless, the Turks were furious.  German-Turkish relations have been going downhill and picking up speed ever since.

During the campaign for the April 2017 constitutional referendum, approximately 1.3 million Turks living in Germany were eligible to vote.  Erdoğan wanted to address them – Germany refused.  As a result, Erdoğan said the Germans were using “Nazi practices” to keep him from addressing the Turkish diaspora.  In another development, the head of German foreign intelligence said in an interview that Turkey failed to convince them that Gülen was behind the abortive coup.  Der Speigel quoted Bruno Kahl as saying “Turkey has tried to convince us of that at every level but so far it has not succeeded.”

Germany decided to withdraw its troops who support the fight against the Islamic State group in Syria from Incirlik base and move them to Jordan after German lawmakers were refused the right to visit the base.  Turkey blocked German MPs from visiting the troops in apparent retaliation after Germany gave asylum to Turkish officers who fled in the wake of last year’s failed coup attempt.  The Turks also claimed some German MPs have been in contact with the PKK and couldn’t allow them to visit Incirlik for “security reasons”. 

German-Turkish reporter Deniz Yucel has been imprisoned in Turkey since mid-February 2017. 

Erdoğan described him as a German spy and agent of the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Erdoğan said he had ties to the outlawed Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK), claiming picture evidence proved the journalist was a "proper agent" and "terrorist."   German journalist Mesale Tolu was arrested in the early hours of May 1.  Tolu was reportedly placed under remand facing allegations of spreading "propaganda for a terrorist organization" as well as "membership in a terrorist group."

Earlier this month, Turkish police detained ten people [four of have since been released], including German human rights consultant Peter Steudtner and Amnesty International's director for Turkey, Idil Eser. They’re in custody awaiting trial for allegedly aiding an unnamed terror group. Pre-trial detention in Turkey can last for up to five years.  They had been conducting a digital security and information management workshop that had been in progress for two days when they were arrested.  Steudtner's co-organizer, the Swede Ali Gharavi and seven Turkish activists were also detained.

Germany has since demanded Steudtner’s release, but Turkey has responded to the German demands as interference with the Turkish judiciary.  They also accused the Germans of harboring fugitives from Turkish justice.  Turkish officers and diplomats that Turkey says were involved with the July 2016 coup have sought political asylum in Germany.  The German foreign minister complained that German companies are being accused of aiding and abetting terrorism without any evidence, and that this current diplomatic climate casts doubt on future German exports to Turkey.  Germany is also revising their “travel advice” for German tourists traveling to Turkey.  The German foreign minister stated that what happened to Steudtner could happen to anybody.  Steudtner’s arrest might be a bridge too far for Germany.  Given Turkey’s president of perpetual outrage, this may not end well.

“March for Justice”

A Turkish court found Enis Berberoglu, a member of parliament for Turkey's main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP – the party of the republic’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk), guilty of leaking a video that purportedly showed Turkey smuggling weapons to Syrian rebels. Berberoglu was given a 25-year prison sentence.  CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu described the decision as lawless and politically motivated.  As a protest, Kilicdaroglu walked from Ankara to Istanbul, where Berberoglu is imprisoned, while holding a sign reading "Adalet," meaning “justice” in Turkish.  He gathered thousands of fellow marchers along the 250 miles between Ankara and Istanbul.  It was a non-political protest – the only sign that was displayed was the Adalet sign.  Keep in mind that in the immediate aftermath of the coup attempt, Kilicdaroglu and his CHP supported Erdoğan’s government.  Erdoğan warned that Kilicdaroglu’s march could land him “in trouble”.  But for now, the opposition to Erdoğan [hitherto fragmented] has unified, and Kilicdaroglu is still a free man.  How long the opposition to Erdoğan maintains their unity remains to be seen.