Ukraine Today

Things are going from bad to worse in what used to be the Soviet Union.  In July 2014, “separatist” forces shot down a Malaysian jumbo jet in the Donetsk Oblast.  The initial reaction was one of shock, horror, much finger-pointing between Russia and Ukraine, and much gnashing of teeth, but in the months since this event it has receded into the background noise of other events happening in the region.  The European Union and the United States have imposed several rounds of sanctions on Russia over its annexation of the Crimea and support for the separatists.  The ruble tanked, the bottom fell out of oil prices and the Russian economy contracted.  There are some in the West who believe that because of these events, Vladimir Putin would hesitate to take any action in Ukraine to further Russian interests.  What Western decision-makers don’t understand is that Vladimir Putin doesn’t care.  Those developments are mere speed bumps on the way to Vlad’s vision of the way things ought to be.  That vision is to keep Ukraine as a “non-aligned” nation.  That means no partnership with the EU, and definitely no NATO membership.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said “only a nonaligned Ukraine may escape further territorial disintegration.” Apparently, Ukraine didn’t get the memo. 

In June 2014, newly-elected Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko took office and began to implement promises he made during his presidential campaign, mainly those about getting closer to Western Europe.  Later that same month he signed free trade and association agreements with the European Union.  This allows Ukraine to sell their goods to the EU duty-free.  Mr. Poroshenko sees complete integration with the EU to be a ten-fifteen year process.  In December 2014, the Ukrainian parliament passed, and Poroshenko signed, a new law that abandons Ukraine’s non-aligned status.  Poroshenko indicated that when Ukraine is able to meet NATO standards [his estimation: five-six years from now], there will be a referendum to decide whether to join NATO.  It is not a coincidence that fighting between Ukrainian regulars and “separatists” in Donetsk has resumed since the new Ukrainian law took effect.  Not only has fighting resumed in Donetsk [it never really stopped, but it has escalated], but now the “separatists” are aiming for Mariupol.  Mariupol sits on the coast of the Sea of Azov.  Taking it would be one step toward establishing a “land bridge” between Russia and Crimea.  It would also deny another port to Ukraine, further strengthening Russia’s hand in the Black Sea.

In September 2014, Russia, Ukraine, the Russia-backed “separatists” and the OSCE signed the Minsk Protocol.  This agreement was supposed to stop the fighting in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine [Donetsk and Luhansk], and create some kind of demilitarized zone from which both sides would withdraw their heavy weapons.   The cease fire really didn’t take – Ukraine didn’t withdraw its heavy weapons, and Russia continued to supply the “separatists” with munitions, heavy weapons and “volunteers.”  Russia is engaging in a “hybrid war,” were commandos without insignia are slipping across the border to engage Ukrainian troops, and Russian military equipment and material are appearing in eastern Ukraine where none had been there before.  The Ukrainian “separatists” are on the offensive, but Ukrainian defenders refuse to go away.  The front has stabilized, but the separatists are not content with controlling only 40 percent of the Donbas region.  And so the war of attrition continues.

For the foreseeable future, expect Vladimir Putin to continue to support the Ukrainian “separatists.”  In the “no brainer” category, the Russians will continue to give material support to the “people’s republics” either with arms and/or “volunteers.”   Russia will continue to deny any involvement, and the West will continue to think economic sanctions with alter Russian behavior.  The Ukrainians aren’t strong enough to kick these “separatists” out of Ukraine, and the “people’s republics” aren’t strong enough to defeat Ukraine without Russian help.  Ukraine will remain weak and divided.  For the longer term, I would expect Russia to act in Ukraine as they are now acting in Abkhazia.  Russia and Abkhazia have entered into a joint forces agreement, which integrates the foreign policy and the military command structure with Russia.  The Russians now consider an attack on Abkhazia as an attack on Russia.  This arrangement keeps Georgia divided and weak, and more importantly, out of NATO.  Since I don’t expect that Ukraine will be victorious over the “separatists,” I would expect the “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk to enter a similar arrangement with Russia that it now enjoys with Abkhazia.  

1 Feb 15 Update -
Here's an excellent depiction of the current situation in Donetsk and Luhansk that I found on Radio Free Europe's page:

This one is a little more detailed.  How many Ukrainian regulars are in that pocket?