Putin in Syria

What does Vladimir Putin want?  He already has it.  The Russians are back in the Middle East in a way they haven’t been since 1973.  They have boots on the ground in the region that cannot be ignored.  Putin is establishing a political and military foothold in the eastern Mediterranean.  Putin is the proactive one that is driving events – everyone else is reacting to him.  Barack Obama came to Washington as the guy who wanted to get the US out of two wars in the Middle East.  He’s not about to risk getting the US into one.  When Assad used chemical weapons against his own people, he crossed one of Barack Obama’s “red lines.”  But once the “red line” was crossed, nothing happened.  Obama wants regime change in Syria, but like the Saudis he doesn’t want to do the dirty work himself.  Putin wants Assad to stay right where he is, and he’s put Russian men and materiel in Syria to back it up, as if to say to Barack Obama “what are you going to do about it?”  Putin just put a chip on his shoulder and dared Barack Obama to knock it off.  It’s been over 1,500 days since the Obama Administration declared Assad’s “days are numbered.”  1,500 is a pretty big number, and Assad is still there.  Putin isn’t propping up Assad out of the goodness of his heart.  Doing so advances Russia’s interest in the Middle East and the eastern Mediterranean.  The poking of Barack Obama in the eye [again] while doing so is just a bonus.

The day after Obama and Putin spoke to the UN General Assembly, Russia launched airstrikes in Syria.  Those airstrikes and those from the following day weren’t directed at ISIS.  They were directed at groups opposed to Assad.  This much is clear – Russia and Iran will deal with Assad’s opponents.  When they are gone, Russia will present Saudi Arabia, Turkey and all the other countries in the region with a clear choice – ISIS or Assad.  ISIS is an existential thread to the Saudis and some of the others; Assad is not.  Would you care to guess which of the two evils they’ll choose?

While the US is spending millions of dollars to train 6 people to fight against ISIS, Russia has boots on the ground.  What do the Russians have in Syria?  They already have a naval base in Tartus, which has been there since the 1970s.   New construction at the airport in Latakia has been ongoing since June of this year.  Yet, despite these improvements to the airport infrastructure, the presence of Russian equipment has taken policymakers in Washington by surprise.  Since the beginning of September personnel and heavy equipment began to appear in Latakia; roughly 30 combat aircraft [Su-24, Su-25, and Su-30] and at least a half-dozen ground-attack helicopters [Mi-24].  There appear to be half-dozen tanks and quite a few BTR-series armored personnel carriers. 

[Photos courtesy of Stratfor]

NATO Commander Gen. Breedlove is worried about all the toys the Russians brought to Syria.  He suggested the weaponry included SA-15 and SA-22 surface-to-air missile defense systems.  He said "I have not seen ISIL flying any airplanes that require SA15s or SA22s…"  Could SA-10s be far behind?  Who are those missiles for?  Those weapons are meant for our guys, of course.  There is another thing to consider what the Su-30s are doing in a theater where there is no ISIS air threat.  My friend Tom directed my attention to an article on the War Is Boring site.  Author Dave Majumdar opines that Russia may be using these aircraft to gather intelligence on the F-22.  He quotes a “senior U.S. Air Force intelligence official” –

 "While it appears the Russians are following their standard doctrine with regard to the deployment/employment of their ground and air assets, it’s certainly not out of the question to use their newer air-to-air assets as a form of ‘operational testing’ in the real world environment… It may be a way for them to ‘characterize’ the F-22’s radar emissions on their radar warning receivers (RWR) in a real-world environment.“

Another official put it more succinctly - “$100 says their air players are there to soak up trons from our fifth-gen stuff.”  The thought hadn’t occurred to me, but it makes complete sense.

Ralph Peters foresees that what could happen next is that one of our aircraft gets “accidentally” shot down by the Russians.  If that happened, this would be Vladimir Putin telling Barack Obama “your move, Sparky.”  Then what?  Perhaps our guys and the Russians can get together to deconflict airspace before that happens.  I certainly hope they do.

One thing is certain – because of Putin’s actions in Syria, nobody is talking about Ukraine.  A couple of days ago, President Obama approved $20 million to provide Ukraine with the Q36 Firefinder radar system.  This radar is designed to detect and track incoming artillery and rocket fire and determine their point of origin.  This is a nice gesture, but only a token gesture that won’t get Vladimir Putin’s attention.  Ukrainian President Poroshenko will probably thank Mr. Obama, but what he really wants are lots of Javelin anti-tank missiles.  The US Army, the Marine Corps and Australian special forces used the Javelin in Iraq and Afghanistan.  They were used against tanks, APCs and troop trucks in Iraq, and against weapons crews, lightly armoured and unarmoured vehicles, caves, fortified positions and individuals.  The anti-tank warheads can penetrate reactive armour, while a multi-purpose warhead is a fragmentation warhead for use against people.  If the Ukrainians had these weapons, they could make life miserable for Putin’s little green men who “aren’t there.”