Russians Acting Like Russians? How Dare They!

In the last few weeks, Russia [and more specifically Vladimir Putin] has acted in ways that American leaders call a “19^th century country.”  If I was in Vladimir Putin’s shoes, I believe my retort would be “and your point?”  Russia has their interests, we have ours.  Sometimes those interests coincide, most times they do not.  But, is Russia acting like a “19^th century power,” or do the roots of its actions go farther back?  To put it simply, are the Russians just being Russians?  Is this “19^th century” behavior a new phenomenon, or is it a reflex that has been drilled into the Russian psyche over many hundreds of years? 

Kievan Rus – Both Russia and Ukraine trace their roots [cultural and religious] back to this first Eastern Slavic state  .  Founded by Vikings (Varangians) in the 9^th Century AD, the Kievan Rus stretched from the Baltic to the Black Sea.  They established their capital in Kiev, a city documented to be about 700 years older than Moscow.  With the conversion to Eastern Orthodoxy in 988, Kiev became the spiritual center of the Rus.  This is considered the official beginning of the Russian Orthodox Church.  After the Mongol conquest, the nexus of this church moved to Moscow.  The Kievan Rus lasted until it was conquered by the Mongols in the 13^th Century.  In the 14^th Century Kiev was captured by the Grand Duchy of Lithuania.  In 1569 Lithuania and Poland united in the Lithuania-Polish Commonwealth, with Ukrainian lands going to Poland.  In 1667, Russia acquired Ukrainian lands east of the Dnieper River after a long war with Poland.  In 1783, the Russians conquered that part of Ukraine which was part of the Crimean Khanate [along the Black Sea coast].  This land [called ‘New Russia’] was settled by Ukrainians and Russians.  In 1793, the Second partition of Poland [between Russia, the Austria, and Prussia], Russia acquired the rest of what is now Ukraine.  Russians have considered Ukraine as part of their country ever since.

The Russian Experience – Russia has a long history of being surrounded by and being invaded by enemies along its borders.  The Russians have been invaded by the Mongols, Tatars, Swedes, Napoleon, the Germans [twice], fought the English and the French in Crimea, Allied expeditionary armies in the Russian Civil War…you get the idea.  To keep their enemies at arms-length, they expanded their empire.  Ivan IV [‘The Terrible’] annexed Kazan, Astrakhan, and Siberia.  Peter the Great won territory from Sweden to establish a new capital, a Baltic Sea port, and a ‘window to the West’ – St. Petersburg.  They acquired Ukraine [as noted above].  Catherine the Great took part in the Third Partition of Poland.  Alexander I took Finland from Sweden in 1809, and Bessarabia from the Ottomans in 1812.  The Soviets annexed Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in 1940.  After World War II, the Soviets also established satellite regimes in Eastern Europe [the Warsaw Pact] as a buffer zone against further attacks from the West.  Those are just some of the highlights of Russian expansion.  To paraphrase a friend, ‘it’s what they do.’

NATO Offensive Actions

In 1949, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization formed as a defensive alliance to protest countries from Soviet aggression.  Specifically in Article 5 of the NATO treaty, an attack against one of the member state is considered an attack against the entire alliance.  Article 5 has been invoked only once – that was in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks against the United States.  But strangely enough, this alliance that was formed at the beginning of the Cold War as a defensive alliance has actually initiated hostilities on several separate occasions.  These instances include the following:

1.      Yugoslavia

Operation Deny Flight - 12 April 1993-20 December 1995

-        Enforcement of a UN no-fly zone over Bosnia and Herzegovina

Operation Deliberate Force - August and September 1995

-        Sustained air campaign conducted by NATO, against the Army of the Republika Srpska (VRS), to protect UN-designated "safe areas" in Bosnia and Herzegovina during the Bosnian War

Operation Allied Force – 24 March – 10 June 1999

-        An end to all military action and the immediate termination of violence and oppression in Kosovo by Serbia;

-        Withdrawal of all Serbian military, police and paramilitary forces from Kosovo;

-        Stationing of UN peacekeeping presence in Kosovo;

-        Unconditional and safe return of all refugees and displaced persons;

-        Establishment of a political framework agreement for Kosovo

-        Never was an operation so aptly named, because we acted like big OAFs in a place we didn’t need to be [Editor’s Note]

2.      Libya [involvement in Libyan Civil War]

Operation Odyssey Dawn/Unified Protector – 19 March – 31 October 2011

-        Enforce UN no-fly zone

-        Naval arms embargo against Libya

So what are the Russians to make of a defensive alliance being used for offensive purposes?  From their perspective, NATO used their might [the diplomacy of the gun] to pressure Serbia into a desired outcome [autonomy and ultimately independence for Kosovo].  Why do I point out these facts?  With NATO having participated in offensive [vice defensive] actions, it makes it very easy for Vladimir Putin to say we are being just a tad hypocritical about his actions in the Crimea.

There is one thing to consider.  In 1939, Britain and France made guarantees to Poland that they would come to their aid in case the Germans attacked.  This arrangement was an informal alliance.  That attack came, and Britain and France honored their commitment to Poland and declared war on Germany two days later.  But that’s as far as it went.  There was no invasion of Germany. Quite the opposite happened.  There was the so-called “Phony War” in which not much happened.  And while there was no action against Germany, the Soviet Union invaded Poland on 17 Sept to claim ‘their part’ of Poland guaranteed to them by a nonagression pact between Germany and the Soviet Union.  Unknown to everybody except those who negotiated the pact, there was a secret protocol that allowed the Soviets to have free reign in the Baltic States – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.  Until the end of World War I and the ensuing Russian and Bolsheviks Revolutions, those countries had been a part of the Russian Empire.  With Czar Nicholas gone, and the Russians engaged in their own very bloody civil war [1918-21], those three Baltic countries declared their independence from Russia.  What does that have to do with the secret protocol?   The secret protocol allowed the Soviets [as the Russians became known after the Communists won the Russian Civil War] to occupy the Baltics without German interference.  In 1940, the Soviets exercised their “rights” under the protocol and occupied the Baltics.  What did the US do?  What could the US do?  We sent the Soviets a letter to tell them that we were very cross with them, and we continued to recognize the independence of those Baltic nations under Soviet occupation.   Other than that…

Fast forward 74 years to today – 2014.  To say that things have changed since 1940 would be an understatement.  Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are all now members of NATO.   Each country is also a member of the European Union.  If Vladimir Putin casts his wandering eye in the direction of the Baltics, what happens then?  We’re bound by treaty to fight for them if they are attacked.  The same can be said for Poland.  In 1939 there was an informal agreement between France, England and Poland about support to Poland in case the Germans attacked.  That didn’t work out so well for the Poles then.  But we’re bound by treaty to fight for them as well.  I believe a test for the NATO alliance is coming soon, much sooner than anybody would like to think about.  Another question to ponder – what is the Russian Baltic Fleet doing right now?

Before he left office, George W. Bush made promises to both the Poles and the Czechs to establish missile defenses in their countries.  Barack Obama has since decided against such a course of action.  I’m not going to argue the merits of those decisions – I’m pointing out facts.  In light of what is happening in Ukraine, the Poles are understandably nervous about what happens next.  Vice President Biden was over there trying to re-assure the Poles we have their back.   Whether the Poles believe his reassurances is to be seen.

The fact that NATO has expanded so far eastward annoys the Russians.  Mikhail Gorbachev believes to this day there was an understanding between the US, USSR, UK and France that NATO would go no further east once Germany was reunified.  My understanding is that was Gorbachev’s price for agreeing to German reunification in the first place.  If that is the case, I can imagine the Russians’ surprise and annoyance about Poland, the Baltics, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria [all former Warsaw Pact members] and Romania all becoming part of NATO. 

Why Crimea?  - Simple – because he could.  The Black Sea Fleet is based at Sevastopol.  In light of the chaos and confusion that reigns in Kiev, Putin couldn’t pass up the opportunity.  He saw the shot and he took it.

So Vladimir Putin has the Crimea.  What is next?  Does he invade Ukraine and ‘protect’ the 40% of Ukrainians who claim to be Russians?  If so, how far will he go?  Are there two Ukraines in our future, will other Ukrainian provinces ‘secede’ and join Russia [leaving a ‘rump’ Ukraine’], or will there be one Ukraine under Russian domination?  Or maybe he has other places in mind – Moldova perhaps?  Vladimir Putin has said that the dissolution of the Soviet Union was a ‘great tragedy.”  To what lengths will he go to get the band back together?  One has to remember – Putin was a colonel in the KGB.  Old habits die hard with those folks.

Russia's behavior is nothing new. Leaders may change, but the deep-rooted behaviors don't.  Ignore the Russians at your peril.  Just as a reminder, here is a clear example of who we’re dealing with.  These are before and after pictures of Grozny, Chechnya.  When the Chechens decided they wanted to break away from Mother Russia, Russian authorities decided that Interior Ministry troops would be sufficient to keep Chechnya in the fold.  When that proved to be difficult, they called in the Russian Army.  Again, when Russian army tactics proved ineffective, they called back some old senior leadership of the Red Army.  After they worked their magic, Grozny bore more resemblance to Stalingrad than it did a city inhabited by human beings.